Hello, and welcome to Irish Election Stats. This site was created by David Higgins with the intention of providing in-depth analysis ahead of the 2016 General Election. The next election will be a crucial test for the Fine Gael/Labour coalition which currently commands over 60% of the seats in Dáil Éireann. Opinion polls have never been more volatile in Ireland as the country moves from a “two and a half party system” (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour) to one where all of the aforementioned parties, and Sinn Féin, have the potential to command significant and even dominant support in the Irish Electoral System. Over the course of the next year, this site will attempt to achieve a number of things:
- Constituency level analysis – Following the 2012 Constituency Commission Report Ireland was re-drawn into 40 constituencies of either three, four, or five seats. In total 158 seats will be up for grabs in 2016, down from 166 in the present Dáil. Each of these 40 constituencies is its own battle, fought alongside the national debate on the next government. The phrase “all politics is local” rings true as many constituencies will produce results which deviate from national opinion polls and predictions. In attempting to model each constituency historical election results will play a major role, as will local knowledge and the strength of selected candidates. This is a highly subjective field, and the predictions made should be taken alongside one’s daily sodium intake.
- Opinion polls – In advance of a general election opinion polls become more frequent and polls will begin to tackle questions beyond that of party support. This site hopes to track the major opinion poll results and to assess their validity.
- Historic results – In their own right, Ireland’s historical elections results take us into the past debates that defined the evolution of our country. Alongside the serious business of calling the next election, this site aims to provide readers with some fascinating figures, and the stories which led to results many could never have anticipated.
This site is new and seeks to bring as many people as possible into the discussion. Comment is free and if you are interested in getting involved with the project, please get in touch. Anyone with a flare for statistical modelling would be an invaluable contributor to the site.