Party elections in the UK, France and the US have been turned on theirs heads:
- Everyone thought Boris Johnson would be the next Conservative leader.
- Everyone thought France’s Nicolas Sarkozy would run for a second presidential term.
- Everyone thought French Prime Minister Manuel Valls would win the Socialist nomination.
- No one foresaw the rise of Corbyn
- No one foresaw the rise of Trump
The above data shows party memberships crying out for something authentic:
- The traditional values conservative (Fillon)
- The anti-austerity socialist (Hamon/Corbyn)
- The fearless strongman (Trump)
The Fine Gael election is less likely to display such volatility. However, it will be the first ever to allow a membership vote. It is weighted as follows:
- Parliamentary Party (TDs, Senators and MEPs) – 65%
- Ordinary members – 25%
- Councillors – 10%
With the campaign set to take place over a number of weeks, the data above may change substantially before the final votes are cast.