The Irish Election Stats model brings together opinion polls and constituency data to produce forecasts for the 2016 General Election. On this site you will find data on all candidates across all 40 constituencies. The site was developed by political analyst David Higgins.



Party seats


 

Note that seat projections are a sum of probabilities. The situation for each party is much more wide ranging than a single seat figure. See the party section to explore each party in greater detail. Fluctuation in these numbers is due not only to changing opinion poll data, but to the incorporation of new candidates as they announced up to the close of nominations. Methodology changes to the model have also been taking place up to the close of nominations.



Breakdown of minor parties


Note that prior to 2016, outgoing TDs Clare Daly, Joan Collins and Seamus Healy were classified under “AAAPBP”, which was then a category called “United Left”. Projections in 2016 include these TDs as independents.



Coalition seats



Note that this site doesn’t breakdown coalition options further than two party combinations among the big four. There are countless permutations and combinations available among the broad “independents and others” group.



Female seats


Note: 25 women were elected in 2011.



Constituencies


  1. Donegal
  2. Sligo Leitrim
  3. Cavan Monaghan
  4. Louth
  5. Meath East
  6. Meath West
  7. Longford Westmeath
  8. Roscommon Galway
  9. Mayo
  10. Galway West
  11. Galway East
  12. Offaly
  13. Laois
  14. Kildare North
  15. Kildare South
  16. Wicklow
  17. Carlow Kilkenny
  18. Tipperary
  19. Clare
  20. Limerick City
  21. Limerick County
  22. Kerry
  23. Cork South West
  24. Cork North West
  25. Cork North Central
  26. Cork South Central
  27. Cork East
  28. Waterford
  29. Wexford
  30. Dublin Fingal
  31. Dublin West
  32. Dublin Mid West
  33. Dublin South West
  34. Dublin Rathdown
  35. Dun Laoghaire
  36. Dublin North West
  37. Dublin Bay North
  38. Dublin Central
  39. Dublin South Central
  40. Dublin Bay South

 



Recent polls


The polls shown are individual results. To see the poll averages used in the model, please visit Irish Polling Indicator.

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