Recent trends show the Fine Gael leadership race is wide open



Party elections in the UK, France and the US have been turned on theirs heads:

  • Everyone thought Boris Johnson would be the next Conservative leader.
  • Everyone thought France’s Nicolas Sarkozy would run for a second presidential term.
  • Everyone thought French Prime Minister Manuel Valls would win the Socialist nomination.
  • No one foresaw the rise of Corbyn
  • No one foresaw the rise of Trump

 

The above data shows party memberships crying out for something authentic:

  • The traditional values conservative (Fillon)
  • The anti-austerity socialist (Hamon/Corbyn)
  • The fearless strongman (Trump)

 

The Fine Gael election is less likely to display such volatility. However, it will be the first ever to allow a membership vote. It is weighted as follows:

  • Parliamentary Party (TDs, Senators and MEPs) – 65%
  • Ordinary members – 25%
  • Councillors – 10%

With the campaign set to take place over a number of weeks, the data above may change substantially before the final votes are cast.